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Subscribe Search This Thread. Start a New Thread. After the Fed cut target benchmark rates to Three days later, we have reversed all of those gains, and things are looking bearish as ever. The market is in a rising wedge pattern, common in powerful bear markets, and I expect a break down coming very soon.

Next week is shortened due to Christmas and the week after that is the last trading week of the calendar year so I expect a small bounce to end the year, but the beginning of January will be met with big selling, in my opinion. Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop. The global credit crisis's effects are just now starting to trickle into normal American's spending habits, as their wealth has been drastically diminished with falling housing prices, mutual funds, pension funds, and widespread layoffs.

Consumer spending is going to get hit hard starting in , kicking off after bad Christmas season numbers are reported and stores start going out of business. Retailers leaving malls and other commercial real estate developments further decrease the lease prices real estate investment trusts REITs and mall operators generate income from.

This is going to send commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations spiraling down, just as they did for residential real estate in , leaving companies like Simon Property Group SPG , Vornado Realty Trust VNO , and Public Storage PSA absolutely toast. Insurers are another sector to watch for in They are another batch of financial companies very adversely affected by widespread insolvency ratios.

These companies are going to lose a lot more money as credit tightens further and they suffer more write-downs and losses, as their huge exposure to synthetic CDOs topples their revenues.

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Also, as unemployment starts rising first cost-cutting measure of a business is labor capital , fewer Americans will drive to work, and automobile use will decline significantly. This will drastically decrease demand for auto insurance, further hurting insurers.

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Prudential PRU , Hartsford Insurance Group HIG , Allstate ALL , and Metlife MET are among the best names to watch for big downside in coming months, and these might be names that will be requiring TARP bailouts in the future.

Here's my take on the market in the forseeable future: I expect the indices to sell off at least to their late November lows, most likely breaking them.

The rising wedge pattern the market is forming is very bearish and when we undercut the lower trendline, we should sell off hard. Bernie Madoff news shold add fuel to the fire, as people will want to liquidate their own hedge funds, and other institutional funds will get redemption orders.

Look for oil's bottom to come in the next few months, as well, at least an intermediate term bottom. A strong breach of the support trendline should usher in a fresh selloff.

Click here for my stock blog, which I will regularly update. Click here for an article I wrote on the economic crisis , published on financial website SeekingAlpha. I see another big decline coming soon, not as drastic as the Sept-Oct selloff but still significant.

Liquidate your mutual fund, pension fund, and IRA holdings, pay the fees and taxes, it's worth it.

Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

The Dow isn't bottoming for good until The entire s and s were fueled by artificial wealth allowed by artificially free credit. America financed overconsumption through debt and now we will be purged of this artificial wealth. Get out of your funds and liquidate into cash and gold.

Good to see you back. You gave me some advice on SNS a while back. That was back in my rookie days, before I was doing much economic research and when I was just looking for chart patterns, but I will tell you this-- eventually, casual dining restaurants are toastttt.

Prolly not until later this year, but SNS is a perfect example of a stock I see near 0 in a year or two. So you think the market will bottom under around March?

No I don't think the market bottoms for good for another years, but March could be an intermediate term bottom, from where we get a pretty strong bear bounce. We will undercut all lows by this time next year, though. Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo early Jan i'ma start loading up on SRS and SKF out of the money call options, and SHLD GS SPG VNO BXP LCC CAL HIG PRU out of the money put options. Naufal you got to UofM? This is all in Chinese to me man.

But I'm no fool, I know theres money to be made What's the best easiest way to make some money? Originally Posted by derryj3 This is all in Chinese to me man.

OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER - Page 11

But I'm no fool, I know there's money to be made LOL than what's the point of this thread? Originally Posted by derryj3 LOL than what's the point of this thread?

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo interactive brokers. DKY, which program are you using to get these charts?

Or is this part of interactive brokers? Originally Posted by nicefro Quote: I use Thinkorswim's charting platform for charts. Put your money in the market, IRAs are just going to lose you money. DKY, you are obviously very knowledgeable on the subject and was wondering if you could recommend any books or websites that would be helpful to reaching the current knowledge you have.

I am in college now and am broke, but would like to get well versed on the market so that when I graduate and have money, I will be able to put it to good work. Thanks for the help.

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo I use Thinkorswim's charting platform for charts. What are your thoughts on the future of the dollar? Will it become worthless? DKY I was investing currencies earlier this year and got knocked for a big loss for a 22yr old at least and have been contemplating getting back in and making a couple changes to avoid the loss again I like to stick to candle charts news with minimal TA and it worked well for me until I got away from it Jerseys, Hats, Shirts, Shorts, Real Madrid Win Back to Back Champions